In 2004 president George W. Bush talked of a new commitment to putting a permanent base on the moon and to a 
manned mission to Mars. One wonders, as many did at the time, whether this was just an attempt to distract the electorate from the disastrous war in Iraq. Across the pond the European Space Agency (ESA), has a project named ‘Aurora‘ with a long term aim of putting human beings on Mars by around 2030. We have the technology, not withstanding significant practical difficulties (not least of which the difficulty of sustaining human beings over such long periods of time and distance in space), to make the trip. Only the most stubborn and unimaginative argue for the wisdom of robots over human beings. Human beings have a long overdue rendezvous with the red planet. It would be a seismic technological and cultural achievement with ramifications for the whole of humanity. On a practical level human beings are more effective scientists on the ground than robots, and human footsteps on that alien world would serve to reinforce the uniqueness and fragility of our own planet. The cost is undeniably massive; but it could could be lessened by more cooperation between nations. The US military budget still dwarfs the amount given to NASA each year. There is no way that, with improving technologies considered, cost should still be an impediment for this voyage.
But my guess is that if we are going to get there in the next couple of decades or so the impetus is not going to come from greater international cooperation, but rather from competition and new global tensions. If we’ve learned anything from the Apollo missions and of the earlier space race of the Cold War period, it is that political expediency rather than scientific advancement has driven space exploration to take its boldest steps. In October of 2003 China became only the third nation to have launched a human being into space. The people who mocked this accomplishment at the time for being forty years too late to hold any significance, completely missed the point. In a subsequent Pentagon report China was upgraded in terms of the military threat it posed. As far as the military are concerned space flight has always been first and foremost about rocket power.
For the Chinese however this was matter of national prestige. The Pilot Yang Lewei (I’m tempted to say astronaut but perhaps cosmonaut might be more apt) is a national hero. Before embarking he is reported to have said:
I will not disappoint the motherland. I will complete each movement with total concentration. And I will gain honor for the People’s Liberation Army.
The economy of China will soon be on a par with the US and so it follows that there will be a power struggle played out in a variety of domains. Is it foolish to imagine that this one party state might see a terrific opportunity to beat the US and the West to the punch and land humans on Mars first? It would certainly be a delicious twist in world history if China, having suffered centuries of humiliation and defeat both militarily and economically at the hands of the West, was the first to conquer another autonomous planet in our solar system. In a way it would be a resumption of normal service in terms of cultural achievements with regard to the many centuries Chinese civilization blossomed and prospered out in front whilst the west slumbered under the reign of medieval tyrannies. Who knows, for future historians China landing on Mars might come to signify the moment they consolidated their position as the dominant world power. Wild speculation though this may be, maybe space exploration will once again figure as a marker for relative development and vitality.
If China were even in the race, it would certainly spur on American and European projects just as the Moon landing became a cold war imperative in the sixties. Who knows, in the interest of science perhaps this competitive edge is what’s needed; we could do without the prospect of nuclear apocalypse that may accompany it however.
But relations between nation states aside the landing of Human Beings on Mars would be a beautiful and awe-inspiring thing, whoever manages to achieve it. I hope in my lifetime to have the privilege of witnessing this event.